Prospect growth is seldom, if ever, linear. Some players take the time to hone their skills and adapt at every level, while others can go through the lower levels with ease. While unremarkable 28-year-old guys might emerge in the big and rake without a hitch, former high prospects frequently fade out of the major leagues.
Starting pitcher Matthew Liberatore of the St. Louis Cardinals has witnessed a wide range of situations.
Liberatore was acquired by the Cardinals via trade in January 2020. St. Louis transferred power-hitting right handed Jose Martinez and a 25-year-old outfield prospect by the name of Randy Arozarena to the Tampa Bay Rays. In return, the Cardinals acquired Liberatore, a 2018 first-round pick who was ranked by MLB Pipeline as the 41st overall prospect at the time.
This deal appeared to be a solid one at the time. To create place for players like Tyler O’Neill, Dexter Fowler, Harrison Bader, and Lane Thomas, the Cardinals reduced their outfield depth. In exchange, they got one of the best pitching prospects in the game at the time.
The Rays were greatly advantage by the trade’s first results. Randy Arozarena was a major force in the 2020 playoffs, winning the ALCS MVP award that year. He also earned the American League Rookie of the Year award in 2021 and continuously generated plus offensive figures. Arozarena’s five-year-old son, Liberatore, was working in the minors, attempting to find his place.
The majority of Liberatore’s 2021 and 2022 seasons were spent in Triple-A Memphis. In both of those seasons, he was unable to record a starting pitcher ERA below 4.00. In 2022, he made his Major League Baseball debut, pitching nine games (seven starts) with a 5.97 ERA. He had a somewhat better 2023 big league season, finishing with a 5.25 ERA in 22 games (11 starts).
When 2024 arrived, Matthew Liberatore started to discover that the bullpen was the place where he might flourish. Last year, Libby made 60 appearances and pitched 63.1 innings of relief with a 3.69 ERA. Many thought he had discovered his niche as a multi-inning, high-leverage reliever since his overall statistics were much better in relief than they were as a starter.
But the Cardinals had different ideas.
The team intended to use 2025 as a season to assess if their past top prospects were future assets and to see what they might provide. That group includes previous baseball’s top prospect Matthew Liberatore, who was selected as the team’s fifth starter following spring training. He was at last having a chance to secure a rotation slot for the foreseeable future without interruption.
Since then, Liberatore has only posted once every five days.
Matthew Liberatore’s massive improvements this year have made a once-failed trade into a more balanced one for John Mozeliak
After seven starts and forty-one innings pitched, Matthew Liberatore has a 3-3 record. In addition to striking out 23.8% of the hitters he has faced, he has a 2.31 FIP and a 3.07 ERA. His six total walks are only the third-fewest among qualifying starting pitchers, and his 20% K-BB percentage is 17th among them. Libby has started the season as one of baseball’s top pitchers.
This is fantastic news for the Cardinals and Liberatore. Liberatore is establishing himself as a genuine top-of-the-rotation arm, and St. Louis may be looking at its first homegrown starting pitcher since Jack Flaherty. What has changed for the 2025 Southpaw?
At the expense of his four-seam fastball and slider, Liberatore has chosen to employ his cutter and changeup more often. Compared to last year, he is using his cutter 1.1% more frequently and throwing his changeup over 8% more frequently. This is fortunate since compared to previous year, his changeup is seeing more induced horizontal breaks. Additionally, his changeup velocity increased from 87.9 to 89.1 mph.
Additionally, Libby has chosen to use his cutter as a put-away pitch more frequently. Its put-away rate of 14.3% is over 8% higher than it was the previous year. Because of its increased 1.6-inch glove-side movement, he has enhanced this pitch by leveraging its horizontal break more than he did previously. Last year, Batters hit.432 against his cutter; this year, he only hits.235. His velocity has also played up thanks to this better cutter.
Throughout his career, Liberatore has been hit far more effectively by right-handed hitters. Although they have a.276/.342/.473 slash line against him, he has actually used reverse splits to counteract his performance this year. Against him, righties are only hitting.210/.223/.319 this year, while left-handed hitters are hitting.229/.308/.257.
This season, Matthew Liberatore has substituted more changeups for his four-seamer, which he has employed less frequently against righties. This season, right-handed batters are only hitting.118 against his changeup. In addition, his sinker use versus right-handed hitters has decreased by about 7% from the previous season.
Matthew Liberatore has thrived in 2025 thanks to his updated pitch profile. His progress this season could position him to be a reliable rotation force for the Cardinals over the next three years, and he’s finally balancing out a transaction that previously benefited the Tampa Bay Rays.
