For years, the Angels have tried and failed to develop young starting pitching. One noteworthy example of this has been Griffin Canning, now 29 years old, who battled injuries and inconsistency en way to a 4.78 ERA during his Angels’ stay.
Canning was originally the Angels’ number. 2-ranked prospect back in 2019 and rated no. 63 on MLB.com’s Top 100 list the same year. From those lofty ambitions, he never regained his footing, and his Angels’ career ended on the most sour of terms as the right-hander concluded 2024 leading the American League in earned runs allowed.
Despite their rotational requirements, one of the Angels’ main priorities heading into the winter was to cut Canning, who had one more year of team control. In exchange for Jorge Soler, the Halos traded Canning to the Atlanta Braves on Halloween. The Braves promptly cut the struggling starter.
After that, Canning would sign a one-year contract with the New York Mets to be a depth starter. At first, he wouldn’t be included in their rotation plans until players like Frankie Montas and Sean Manaea suffered injuries during spring training. He is currently a vital part of a starting rotation that has the second-lowest ERA in MLB (2.88).
How have the NY Mets unlocked Griffin Canning when the Angels failed to do so?
Canning had performed well enough with the Mets early in the season, but he had yet to demonstrate that he had reached his full potential as a frontline starter. But Canning has only grown better as the season progressed.
In his nine starts, he has tossed 47.1 innings and had a 2.47 ERA—highs he had never experienced while toeing the rubber with the Angels. Although his 3.89 FIP and 3.77 xERA are still excellent and represent his career highs, the peripherals still don’t fully support his status as an ace.
The Mets’ Canning adjustments have been straightforward but successful. Canning’s slider is being used 34% more often this season than it was last year (24%), primarily at the expense of his curveball, which is now only being used 4% of the time as opposed to 11% last season. Compared to previous year, when he threw 37% of fastballs, he is now throwing 35%.
The move makes sense because his slider and changeup have always been his strongest pitches, while his fastball is only mediocre and his curveball has been below average for most of his career.
The only other time Canning had ever consistently thrown more than half of his pitches in the zone was in 2023, when he recorded a 52.9% mark and posted a 4.32 ERA, one of the best marks of his career. In addition, he is throwing those off-speed and breaking pitches in the zone more frequently, and his overall Zone% is up at 53.1%, a change from his career mark of 49.1% and last year’s 47.8%.
Attacking the zone with more than just the fastball has helped Canning keep hitters off balance, helping him to create more groundballs. His groundball rate to date in 2025 is 54.5%, significantly over his career high of 40.7%.
It should come as no surprise that Canning has been able to reduce harsh contact and damage by keeping the ball on the ground (33.3% in 2025 against 36.8% lifetime). Additionally, after having his strikeout rate drop to a career low of 6.82 previous season, he has seen it rise, earning 8.75 K/9.
Whether Canning can maintain this level of performance for an entire season is still up in the air. His 91.3% left on base rate is unsustainable, and his 1.29 WHIP isn’t all that different from the 1.33 he’s achieved throughout his career, despite the fact that there are several advantages.
What has changed, though, is how his pitch use adjustments have affected batters’ capacity to cause significant harm to him. He has converted extra base hits into singles by keeping the ball on the ground, and his return to strikeouts has allowed him to avoid giving up huge innings and get out of jams.
Although Canning is still a strong target for regression and probably won’t be able to pitch like a Cy Young starter going forward, his improvements are genuine, and they may eventually make him a viable starter on a successful club.
