Although the majority of the club has done better than expected so far, one of the players that fans thought would lead the team hasn’t quite achieved the career highs that many had forecast. Few observers and pundits thought the St. Louis Cardinals would be a contender in 2025.
The Cardinals were predicted by a number of Redbird Rants writers to finish in the.500 range, but it was almost universally agreed that Willson Contreras would be the team’s most important player. It made sense to do rid of his catcher’s gear and go to first base, which is a lot less demanding position, so that Contreras could concentrate on his bat instead of calling games and dealing with pitchers.
But early in the season, Contreras fell short of even the most modest expectations. It wasn’t until he hit.574 OPS on April 23 that he reached the Mendoza Line, which is a batting average of.200. When compared to the majority of other Cardinals, who were hitting everything in sight, his difficulties were even more noticeable.
A black cat must have crossed Contreras’ path before this season because, based on a graphic that compares weighted on-base average (wOBA) to expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA), his xwOBA is 50 points higher than his wOBA, at.360 to.310, tying him as the 15th “unluckiest” hitter in the major leagues in 2025. However, hitting is considered to be one of the hardest things to do in all of sports, and there is a certain element of luck to the practice.
Contreras has not had luck on his side so far this year
In fact, those numbers are better than they were at the beginning of the season: Contreras’ wOBA was a pitiful.256 on the previously stated day of April 23 compared to his xwOBA of.326, a huge 70-point discrepancy. After that, he was improving: Before experiencing another dry spell, Contreras had a season-high batting average of.261 on May 16.
Contreras has continued to be a model Cardinal despite all of the bad luck at the bat. He became an above-average defender at first base after demonstrating his willingness to shift there to support the team. With his remark, “I don’t care,” about stepping dangerously near to the hitter when protecting against a bunt, Contreras won over even more admirers. I’m not scared. I’ll pass away there if I’m going to die.”
A weaker-willed player may completely collapse due to a run of poor luck in the batter’s box, but Contreras has proven he has the mental fortitude to persevere through the problems. Contreras may not achieve the high standards that supporters had anticipated for this season due to his poor start to the season, but if the positive reversion continues, he might still establish himself as a roster mainstay.
