On Friday, March 27, Duke basketball will play St. John’s in the 2026 Men’s NCAA Tournament Sweet 16.
At 7:10 p.m., the top-seeded Blue Devils (34-2) and head coach Jon Scheyer of the East will take on the fifth-seeded Red Storm (30-6) and head coach Rick Pitino. ET (CBS) from Washington, D.C.’s Capital One Arena.
On Saturday, February 21, Duke will play their second game at the location this season, defeating Michigan, the top-seeded team at the time, at Capital One Arena. This is St. John’s first trip to the Sweet 16 since 1999.
In the Round of 32, St. John’s overcame No. 4 Kansas 67-65 thanks to a Dylan Darling buzzer beater, while Duke defeated No. 9 seed TCU 81-58 to go to the Sweet 16.
Here are some facts and a predicted score for Duke basketball’s Sweet 16 matchup with St. John’s:
Cameron Boozer vs Zuby Ejiofor, defensive battle
Cameron Boozer (ACC) and Zuby Ejiofor (Big East) are the teams’ respective conference winners. Ejiofor leads St. John’s with 16.3 points, 7.3 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 2.2 blocks per game, while Boozer tops Duke with 22.4 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 4.2 assists. Maliq Brown of Duke won the ACC Defensive Player of the Year award, while Ejiofor won the Big East title. With 1.8 blocks per game, Brown leads Duke.
According to KenPom, Duke’s defense is ranked first overall in terms of adjusted efficiency, while St. John’s is ranked eighth. The Red Storm are scoring 69.4 points per game (58th, NCAA), while the Blue Devils are stopping opponents to 63.1 points per game (3rd, NCAA). Only three of Duke’s last 21 opponents have scored more than 70 points, compared to nine of the Johnnies’ last ten opponents.
Duke needs to protect the ball
After facing TCU in the second round, Duke had its second-highest turnover total of the season with 17 turnovers. TCU briefly regained a two-point lead over Duke thanks to eleven of those, five of which occurred in the first three or more minutes of the second half. Despite scoring 20 points off turnovers overall, TCU was unable to defeat the Blue Devils.
This season, it was only Duke’s fourth game with 15 or more turnovers and its 22nd with 10 or more. On December 16, it committed a season-high 22 turnovers against Lipscomb.
On Sunday night, St. John’s scored 18 points by forcing 16 turnovers from Kansas while only making eight themselves. At least three Jayhawk turnovers on in-bound attempts were caused by the Johnnies’ full court press, which interfered with Kansas’ ability to in-bound. In order to defeat the Johnnies, who can profit from defensive pressure, Duke must ensure that the ball is protected.
Rick Pitino history vs Duke basketball in NCAA Tournament
In both of Pitino’s NCAA Tournament encounters with Duke, which took place at different universities than St. John’s, the victor went on to win the NCAA championship.
The first occurred in the 1992 Elite 8 between Duke and Pitino at Kentucky, where a buzzer-beater by Christian Laettner guaranteed Duke a Final Four berth. That year, the Blue Devils defeated Michigan 71-51 to win the NCAA Tournament. Following Darling’s game-winning goal against Kansas, Pitino brought it up in his postgame remarks.
“I’m hoping we can get Duker at the buzzer next to make up for that Christian Laettner shot,” he stated.
Then, when at Louisville, Pitino played Duke in the 2013 Elite 8. After defeating the Blue Devils 85-63, the Cardinals defeated Michigan 82-76 to win the NCAA championship.
Duke vs St. John’s prediction
In Washington, D.C., expect a defensive struggle between Duke 68 and St. John’s 65. Cameron Boozer’s star power and Duke’s defense are sufficient to keep ZUby Ejiofor and the Red Storm at bay.
