Throughout the ups and downs of their early-season play, the Angels have encountered several difficulties this season. As the club has alternated thrilling games when they have performed better than expected with a protracted run where it seemed like nothing could go right, the lineup and rotation have looked terrific at times and awful at others.
The club’s bullpen has consistently produced at the bottom of the barrel. Ben Joyce’s season-ending injury in early April delivered the unit a serious blow, and the team has suffered as a result of the frequent rearranging of the pieces.
There were going to be some difficulties. By starting two rookies (Grant McDaniels and Ryan Johnson), two starters-turned-relievers (Reid Detmers and Ian Anderson), and two other options without a long history of success (Ryan Zeferjahn and Brock Burke), the Halos, with the exception of Kenley Jansen, adopted a youth movement in the ‘pen for Opening Day.
Nevertheless, following an outstanding start, Jansen has grown somewhat less dependable, the young arms have underperformed, and the succession of injury replacements has, predictably, left much to be desired.
Because of this, the bullpen has a league-worst 6.66 through May 21 and has been the team’s only area to depress supporters thus far this season. The situation in the pen might not be as dire as it seems, though, if they can correct one deadly fault.
Fixing this one stat would do a world of good for the Angels’ bullpen
The tendency to give up the big ball is the main problem that has caused the Angels’ bullpen to bottom out this season. According to this questionable statistic, the squad is by far the best in the clubhouse by HR/9. The Angels’ relievers have given up a league-high 1.78 HR/9, far worse than the next-worst team, the Arizona Diamondbacks, who have a 1.37 HR/9 ratio.
In other words, the Angels’ pen produces 16.4% of fly balls that leave the yard, which is another league-worst percentage and two percent greater than the next worst team, the Crosstown Dodgers.
The bullpen hasn’t been very good aside from the homer problem, but it hasn’t been nearly as bad as the ERA indicates either. With a K/9 of 8.73, the Angels are in the middle of the pack and 14th in the league.
The Halo bullpen’s average fastball speed of 95.2 miles per hour is 12th in a league that values speed. They rank 21st with a 41.1% mark, demonstrating that they are also rather good at keeping the ball on the ground. Even if walks are a problem with a 4.37 BB/9, the team is still ranked 25th, which is far higher than where it is on the ERA leaderboard.
A comparison of the ERA (or actual results) and the unit’s xFIP, which depicts what the performance might look like if they could handle the homer issue, is the greatest way to highlight what the Angels’ bullpen is against what it could be.
Like its namesake, FIP, xFIP (anticipated fielding-independent pitching) is an ERA estimate. FIP only considers the three things that a pitcher can directly control: walks, strikeouts, and home runs. In contrast, xFIP normalizes the home run to fly ball ratio to 10.5%, which is around league average.
The Angels’ HR/FB ratio has decreased by over six percent as a result, and the relievers’ combined xFIP is 4.46, more than two runs below their ERA and the biggest ERA-to-xFIP differential in the league.
With an ERA of 4.46, they would be.01 behind the Pittsburgh Pirates, who are in 20th place in MLB, and rank 21st overall. Although it’s still not very good, it’s a far cry from the horrible performance they’ve given thus far.
While it may be difficult to simply cease allowing the long ball to be hit, if the Angels can reduce their zone errors, the other underlying stats show that they are a little below-average team rather than the worst in baseball.
A club hoping to play competitive baseball in 2025 would greatly benefit from everything else in the lineup and rotation generally settling into form.
