As John Mozeliak approaches his final season in his current position, he has the authority to make dubious decisions for the St. Louis Cardinals.As John Mozeliak approaches his final season in his current position, he has the authority to make dubious decisions for the St. Louis Cardinals.
The St. Louis Cardinals are in an odd position as an organization. They have a seasoned pitching staff, with pitchers over the age of 33 accounting for nearly all of their innings. A core of pitchers like this is unsustainable, especially as the organization looks to the future.
In terms of the future, Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak is expected to remain in his current position through the 2025 season before being replaced by Chaim Bloom in 2026. With Mozeliak remaining as General Manager and President of Baseball Operations, he can continue to drive the organization in the direction he believes it should go.
Mozeliak has the ability to shape the roster for 2025. There’s a decent chance he’ll bring back a few underperforming players in 2025, including these three pitchers.
3. RHP Lance Lynn
Lance Lynn is first on my list. Lynn is the first of three starting pitchers on this list, and he is by far the most deserving to return in 2025. We’ll get into why he should or shouldn’t return, but I believe Mozeliak will bring him back with the team option on his contract for next season.
Lynn, 37, had a rather good season last year. He was worth little over 0 WAR, which put him slightly in the positive. He pitched 117.1 innings over 23 starts, with a 3.84 ERA, 4.31 FIP, and 1.34 WHIP. His ERA+ was 109, which is above average for the league, but his FIP and WHIP stats suggest that he was getting lucky.
Lynn will play the majority of the 2025 season at the age of 38. When pitchers reach the age of 40, they virtually always experience a significant decline in performance. Given his age and the fact that his FIP is significantly higher than his ERA, Lynn should experience regression. The Cardinals would benefit from making room in the rotation for a free agent or a young pitching prospect such as Tink Hence.
2. LHP Steven Matz
The next two players on this list face fairly similar situations with the Cardinals. They’re both elderly pitchers with contracts for next season, but they haven’t performed well enough to contribute to a postseason club. The Cardinals would be better off finding trade partners or cutting the two pitchers rather than allowing them to continue to be a net negative for the major league team.
The first player is lefty Steven Matz, who has inked a $12.5 million contract for next season. Last season, Matz had a 5.08 ERA in 44.1 innings for the Cardinals. He had a negative WAR and was largely ineffective as a competitive arm.
There is a potential the Cardinals will find a trade partner for the 33-year-old southpaw if another team believes they can turn his career around. However, Matz will almost probably not be a part of Chaim Bloom’s future when he takes over in 2026. St. Louis possesses Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde, Kyle Gibson, Andre Pallante, and a couple good prospects who might round out the rotation. If St. Louis wants to win, Matz will not be in the rotation, so they would be better off not having him on the roster.
However, Mozeliak is unlikely to budge from his free agent deal from a few seasons ago. He brought Matz back this year and will most likely do it again next year, despite the fact that he does not deserve it.
1. RHP Miles Mikolas
As previously noted, the Cardinals have Gray, Pallante, Fedde, Gibson, and a few strong prospects to round out their rotation. They even have Lynn, who would be better than the unworthy player who now holds the top slot on the list.
The final player on our list is Miles Mikolas, a 36-year-old righty who is owed $18.5 million next season. Mikolas was a net negative pitcher with a 5.35 ERA, -0.2 WAR, and a K/9 rate far lower than 9.0. He’s a glorified innings eater at this juncture in his career, and the Cardinals need pitchers who can win games, not just devour innings.
Should the Cardinals bring him back? No, they should try and trade him. They may have to eat some, if not all, of his remaining money, but they need to make place on their roster for a top free agent pitcher or a top prospect like Tink Hence, who is expected to be ready for the big leagues in 2025.
Finally, no other team will be willing to spend nearly $20 million for Mikolas’ production. Mozeliak will bring him back to fill out innings as the team’s fifth starter, which will be a mistake. The Cardinals’ general manager will not accept his error in handing Mikolas this contract, preferring to bring him back and maybe affect the 2025 roster.