Javier Baez is the feel-good player if the Detroit Tigers have been the season’s feel-good team thus far, winning seven of their past ten games and finishing 22-13, which puts them first in both the AL Central and the American League as a whole.
We have no desire to dampen that celebration. Few players would be able to jump into center field on the fly like Baez has over the past few weeks, and he seems like a valuable leader in a young Tigers clubhouse. His ability to turn things around in Detroit when literally no one thought he could has been an inspiration. He could’ve very easily thrown it in after a dreadful three yearss, and he gets all the credit for not doing so.
Sadly, Tigers supporters should certainly take advantage of this Linsanity streak while it’s still going strong. Because even though Baez appears to be a completely different player at the moment, he really looks a lot like the player they wanted ran out of town only a few weeks ago, at least when it comes to offense.
Javier Baez’s dream start might not last much longer
On the surface, Baez’s offensive comeback is nearly as impressive as his defensive transformation. He enters Monday with an OPS of.829 this season, having traded some power for substantial contact gains during his first three years in Detroit.
But has anything really changed under the hood? Baez’s walk rate is as low as ever, and his K rate is roughly the same. He still hits the ball on the ground a ton, and he’s making weaker contact this season than he has in years past. The one thing that’s different this time around is, well, luck: Baez’s batting average on balls in play is a sky-high . 382, much above the league average of roughly .300. Simply put, Baez’s is making tons of substandard contact, and it just happens to be finding holes right now when it didn’t in the past.Similar results are shown by his predicted metrics: according to Statcast, Baez’s projected batting average (.243) and slugging percentage (.383) are far lower than his actual scores (.479 and.309, respectively).
best of this does not imply that Tigers supporters cannot appreciate this run; regardless of whether Baez has evolved as a player, everyone who enjoys baseball should be able to support the way he has embraced his new role and given Detroit his best. To be clear, a guy who can play shortstop and center field and at least occasionally cause damage at the plate is still valuable.
But ultimately, the other shoe will drop. Expectations should be lowered because, at his core, Baez is the same player he has always been.
