Aaron Nola, a mainstay pitcher for the Philadelphia Phillies, is having his worst start to the season. Nola is at 1-7 with a 6.16 ERA and 69 ERA+ after giving up a career-high 12 hits and nine earned runs in just 3⅔ innings during the Phillies’ 14-7 loss to the St. Louis Cardinals.
During Wednesday’s start, Nola failed to put batters away with two strikes, exposing an especially concerning tendency. After a terrible start to the season with a 6.65 ERA and decreased fastball velocity, Nola has showed some progress with a reasonable 3.33 ERA in his last four outings, as noted by Matt Gelb of The Athletic.
Against St. Louis, those advances vanished. According to Gelb, Nola has now given up 26 two-strike hits this season, which is second-highest in MLB only to Chris Sale of the Atlanta Braves. He gave up six two-strike hits to Cardinals hitters.
“Against Nola, opponents are hitting.229 with a.597 OPS in two-strike situations. A season earlier, those figures were.146 and.466. According to Gelb, “Nola has never been this bad in two-strike counts.”
Nola has also struggled with home runs; in nine starts, he has allowed 11 home runs, including three against the Cardinals. For the third straight season, he is on track to give up at least 30 home runs.
Nola said to Gelb, “I don’t really have another answer for tonight, aside from: Terrible.”
The right-hander, who turns 32 next month, is in the second year of a seven-year, $172 million contract that was signed before the 2024 season. If Nola doesn’t change his mind, the Phillies will find it tough to absorb this enormous financial commitment.
Given Nola’s reputation as a dependable workhorse, this drop is especially worrisome. He has pitched more than 180 innings six times since 2015, made at least 32 starts six times, and struck out more than 200 batters five times (excluding the 2020 season that was cut short due to COVID).
In 2025, the underlying data point to significant issues. Baseball Savant reports that Nola’s hard hit percentage (43.6%) and barrel percentage (9.4%) are at their lowest points in their careers, far higher than their respective averages of 35.4% and 6.4%.
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He has a very low anticipated batting average against of.284 (15th percentile) and an estimated ERA of 4.96 (19th percentile). His fastball velocity has decreased to 90.1 mph (9th percentile), which is more than 2 mph slower than 2021 and 1 mph slower than 2024. This is perhaps the most alarming development.
The Phillies’ postseason hopes may depend on their ability to get their longstanding ace back on track, even if they have one of baseball’s best pitching staffs with Zack Wheeler, Jesus Luzardo, and Cristopher Sanchez.
